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The impact of floods in Southeast Asia means new insurance strategies are needed

Southeast Asia is perpetually and increasingly at risk of flooding, with serious consequences for human life and health – not to mention economies and the environment. So now is the time to look for new strategies and solutions in a bid to save lives and avoid spiralling costs.
Statistics show a clear increase in the frequency and severity of flooding in Southeast Asia over the past few decades. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 9.6 million people in the region were affected by flooding in 2011, with 5.3 million in Thailand alone. That year, the Thai floods were labelled the worst in 50 years by the National Committee for Disaster Management and the Department of Hydrology.
Then a 2013 report by the Asian Development Bank revealed that in the period from 2000 to 2009, floods and storms caused 1,215 disasters in Asia compared with just 502 in the 1980s. Importantly, figures for geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions over the same period stayed roughly the same. So what’s going on? Is this a climate change issue or one of urban development? And most importantly, what can be done by those who are concerned about the situation in Southeast Asia? 
Reassessing our strategies
Anything that costs human life and health costs society. A report by the think tank World Resources Institute revealed that the poorest Southeast Asian countries are particularly at financial risk as a result of flooding. Vietnam has 2.29% of its total GDP exposed to river flooding alone, Cambodia 3.42% and Laos 2.22%.
Vietnam has 2.29% of its total GDP exposed to
river flooding alone, Cambodia 3.42% and
Laos 2.22%.
Across in Indonesia, floods are the most common natural disaster – 97% of disaster events between 2012 and 2014 were hydrometeorological, with floods the most frequent. They are also the most deadly: During the same period floods claimed more lives than any other natural event.
Then there’s the economic impact: The country is hit by flooding to some degree during every rainy season (just last month Indonesia had to contend with more rainfall in a day than it usually sees in a month), and these events hit the economy to the tune of more than USD 2 billion a year.
It’s a similar tale in Thailand where according to a report by the Geneva Association (International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics), the 2011 Thai flood disaster caused losses equivalent to 12% of its GDP – or USD 43bn. Without additional investment, climate change-related floods alone are predicted to lead to average annual economic losses across Asia of USD 500bn or more by 2050 – compared to average annual global flood losses of around USD 30bn between 2004 and 2013.
Insurance against these types of losses is particularly low in Asia. A report by German reinsurer Munich Re found that for every euro loss caused by a natural catastrophe in Asia, only eight cents were covered by insurance between 1980 and 2012 (compared with 40 cents for the US).
If we want to help Southeast Asia stay in control of the health and economic consequences of its current and future flood risk, we need to invest and rethink some of our strategies.
Here are some initial suggestions:
1. Invest in intervention and early warning: Early warning systems can save lives by giving people time to leave potential disaster zones. Investing in them should be a priority. In Vietnam, the Pacific Disaster Center has created VinAWARE. This integrates map data, impact models, rain- and stream-gauge measurements, and meteorological forecasts to provide early warnings and to give the government more time to make important decisions.
2. Invest in community knowledge and health: Many of the disease-related costs during and after a flood can be better managed by educating people on their own personal responsibility (to themselves and others) before and during flood events. Research by the University of Alberta, Canada, shows that such programmes are currently grossly underfunded.
As an example of what can be achieved, the Intermediate Technology Development Group in Bangladesh has concentrated efforts on helping local communities improve housing. Education on raising the foundations of homes, promoting durability by treating building materials, and improving ventilation has all been provided.
Educating local people on the need to maintain sanitation during a flood can also help to reduce the transmission of common post-flood diseases. The most frequently documented disease in the immediate aftermath of a natural disaster is diarrhoea – responsible for 40% of deaths in disaster and refugee camp environments. In most cases, its spread can be greatly limited simply through basic hygiene practices – regular hand-washing and ensuring the cleanliness of cooking and eating utensils, for example.
Educating local people on the need to
maintain sanitation during a flood can also
help to reduce the transmission of
communicable disease and outbreaks such as
diarrhoea.
Leptospirosis – a bacterial infection which elicits flu-like symptoms – is another disease which commonly spreads after heavy floods. Again, the spread of this disease can be greatly controlled if those in disaster-affected areas know what precautions to take. For example, adequate wound dressing and cleaning can go a long way in preventing an outbreak.
The WHO has already put initiatives in place to educate flood-affected communities on such measures – including teaching basic first aid to limit the number of exposed wounds and making sure the poor are properly vaccinated. This can also reduce infection rates and therefore the impact and cost on healthcare systems.
3. Close insurance gaps: The risk of flooding is a difficult thing to insure against and something many cannot afford. As the Economist has pointed out, tsunamis and cyclones do not seem a close enough threat to acknowledge on a day-to-day basis, even if the poor could afford the premiums. However, Southeast Asian governments could take note of what is happening around the rest of the world. Risk-pooling, whereby governments set up a multi-country, disaster-relief insurance, is a growing phenomenon, with the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility a prime example. Started by the region’s governments, donors and experts from the World Bank, it provides rapid, short-term liquidity to a government affected by an earthquake or hurricane to provide relief to healthcare systems and local communities. This is contrary to traditional indemnity insurance, which takes far longer to pay out because payments are based on confirmation of a loss. 

4. Be proactive during each flood stage: By understanding the three key stages – before, during, and after the flood – we can reassess our risk and disease-management strategies. Before the flood, in the panic of moving to safer ground, there can be minor injuries which later become infected by contaminated floodwater. During the flood there is an immediate increase in physical injury and mortality. From this point on, communicable disease becomes a much greater problem. After the flood, many people are left homeless and malnourished. There is also of course the impact on mental health for those surviving such traumatic experiences. 
A time for new ideas
A recent study in the journal Nature noted that, on a global scale, we can blame climate change many of the flooding problems we are seeing, but hone in on Southeast Asia and the story is more complex. A much bigger contributor to flooding here is caused by rapid socio-economic growth. Simply put, uncontrolled and unplanned urban development is raising the risk of floods, and the impact could be devastating. Estimates for Thailand alone suggest the annual costs of flooding may reach USD 22.5bn by 2030.
“Estimates for Thailand alone suggest
the annual costs of flooding may reach
USD 22.5bn by 2030.”
Given what we know about the growing prevalence and health risks of floods, governments, communities and insurance companies in Southeast Asia appear to be in sleepwalk mode.
The reality is that our knowledge of what can be done is high but ideas about how to afford and implement them are low. However, given predictions for climate change and other factors that will increase flood risk in vulnerable communities, no time should be wasted in devising innovative new strategies and solutions that will help to save lives, avoid health disasters and ultimately save millions of dollars.
author.jpg
About the author
John Le Boeuf, Founder and CEO of Cynergy Care
John Le Boeuf is the founder of Cynergy Corporation and has served as President & CEO of the various Cynergy companies since 2002. With a solid two decade senior management experience with key international and US managed health care companies, John has worked with market-leading companies such as Blue Cross Blue Shield, Mutual of Omaha Companies, and Cigna Health Care.

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Stark warning on Atlantic cooling

Climatologists say there is an almost 50% chance that the Labrador Sea in the North Atlantic Ocean will cool rapidly within the next decade.
LONDON, 24 February, 2017 – For thousands of years, parts of north-west Europe have enjoyed a climate around 5°C warmer than many other regions on the same latitude. But new scientific analysis suggests that that could change much sooner and much faster than thought possible.
Climatologists who have looked again at the possibility of major climate change in and around the Atlantic Ocean, a persistent puzzle to researchers, now say there is an almost 50% chance that a key area of the North Atlantic could cool suddenly and rapidly, within the space of a decade, before the end of this century.
That is a much starker prospect than even the worst-case scientific scenario proposed so far, which does not see the Atlantic ocean current shutdown happening for several hundred years at least.

Extreme climate change

A scenario even more drastic (but fortunately fictional) was the subject of the 2004 US movie The Day After Tomorrow, which portrayed the disruption of the North Atlantic’s circulation leading to global cooling and a new Ice Age.
To evaluate the risk of extreme climate change, researchers from the Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux laboratory (CNRS/University of Bordeaux, France), and the University of Southampton, UK, developed an algorithm to analyse the 40 climate models considered by the Fifth Assessment Report.
The findings by the British and French team, published in the Nature Communications journal, in sharp contrast to the IPCC, put the probability of rapid North Atlantic cooling during this century at almost an even chance – nearly 50%.
Current climate models foresee a slowing of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), sometimes known also as the thermohaline circulation, which is the phenomenon behind the more familiar Gulf Stream that carries warmth from Florida to European shores. If it did slow, that could lead to a dramatic, unprecedented disruption of the climate system.

“If the North Atlantic waters do cool rapidly over
the coming years, climate change adaptation policies
for regions bordering the North Atlantic will
have to take account of this phenomenon”

In 2013, drawing on 40 climate change projections, the IPCC judged that this slowdown would occur gradually, over a long period. Its findings suggested that fast cooling of the North Atlantic during this century was unlikely.
But oceanographers from EU emBRACE had also re-examined the 40 projections by focusing on a critical spot in the north-west North Atlantic: the Labrador Sea.
The Labrador Sea is host to a convection system ultimately feeding into the ocean-wide MOC. The temperatures of its surface waters plummet in the winter, increasing their density and causing them to sink. This displaces deep waters, which bring their heat with them as they rise to the surface, preventing the formation of ice caps.
The algorithm developed by the Anglo-French researchers was able to detect quick sea surface temperature variations. With it they found that seven of the 40 climate models they were studying predicted a total shutdown of convection, leading to abrupt cooling of the Labrador Sea by 2°C to 3°C over less than 10 years. This in turn would drastically lower North Atlantic coastal temperatures.

North Atlantic drop

But because only a handful of the models supported this projection, the researchers focused on the critical parameter triggering winter convection: ocean stratification. Five of the models that included stratification predicted a rapid drop in North Atlantic temperatures.
The researchers say these projections can one day be tested against real data from the international OSNAP project, Overturning in the Sub-polar North Atlantic Program, whose teams will be anchoring scientific instruments within the sub-polar gyre (a gyre is any large system of circulating ocean currents).
If the predictions are borne out and the North Atlantic waters do cool rapidly over the coming years, the team says, with considerable understatement, climate change adaptation policies for regions bordering the North Atlantic will have to take account of this phenomenon.
Source: Climate News Network
About the Author:Alex Kirby is a former BBC journalist and environment correspondent. He now works with universities, charities and international agencies to improve their media skills, and with journalists in the developing world keen to specialise in environmental reporting.

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New report on stranded assets

Stranded assets are defined as assets that have suffered from unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluation or conversion to liabilities. In recent years, the issue of stranded assets caused by environmental factors, such as climate change and society’s attitudes towards it, has become increasingly high profile.
Changes to the physical environment driven by climate change, and society’s response to these changes, could potentially strand entire regions and global industries within a short timeframe, leading to direct and indirect impacts on investment strategies and liabilities.
The report, part of Lloyd’s emerging risk report series, looks at actual and potential examples of how stranded assets caused by societal and technological responses to climate change could affect assets and liabilities in the insurance and reinsurance sector. The study aims to increase the understanding and awareness of these issues in the industry.
To do so, it analyses the following eight asset-stranding scenarios in various business sectors:

  • Upstream energy assets: oil and coal reserves become stranded due to international, top-down carbon budget constraints (i.e. “unburnable carbon”)
  • Upstream energy liabilities: third-party liability claims against companies (and their D&Os) responsible for climate change
  • Downstream energy assets: premature closure of coal power stations due to concerns about climate change and the fossil-fuel divestment campaign
  • Downstream energy liabilities: an increase in political risk events due to government energy policies induced by climate-change concerns
  • Downstream energy assets: residential solar PV and electricity storage (in part connected to electric vehicles) impairs centralised electricity generation market
  • Residential property assets: mandatory energy efficiency improvements reduce the value of the least efficient housing stock and increase the value of the most efficient housing stocks
  • Commercial property liabilities: property industry professionals and governments are sued for negligence for not disclosing, reporting or for being misleading on the climate change impacts for property investors
  • Shipping assets: pressure to reduce carbon emissions increases the value of newer, larger, more efficient ships and reduces the value of older, smaller, less efficient ships

The report sets out a number of key actions that companies including insurers, could take in their role as investors to identify and mitigate stranded asset risks.
Download the report: Stranded Assets: the transition to a low carbon economy: Overview for the insurance industry here

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Cranking Up The Intensity: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

Climate change is now influencing all extreme weather events – with some of the most severe climate impacts occurring in 2016, our latest report has found.
Cranking Up The Intensity: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events finds that while the links between climate change and some extreme weather events such as bushfires and heatwaves are well-established, the evidence linking climate change to storms and heavy rainfall is also growing.

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KEY FINDINGS

1. Climate change is influencing all extreme weather events in Australia.

  • All extreme weather events are now occurring in an atmosphere that is warmer and wetter than it was in the 1950s.
  • Heatwaves are becoming hotter, lasting longer and occurring more often.
  • Marine heatwaves that cause severe coral bleaching and mortality are becoming more intense and occurring more often.
  • Extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season is increasing, leading to an increase in bushfire risk.
  • Sea level has already risen and continues to rise, driving more devastating coastal flooding during storm surges.

2. Some of the most severe climate impacts the world has experienced have occurred in 2016.

  • Arctic sea ice reached its lowest annual extent on record while record sea surface temperatures drove the worst coral bleaching event in the Great Barrier Reef’s history.
  • Tropical Cyclone Winston was the most intense cyclone to hit Fiji on record, while Hurricane Otto was the southernmost hurricane to hit Central America on record.
  • Canada experienced its costliest wildfire in history in Fort McMurray, forcing the evacuation of almost 90,000 people.
  • The US state of Louisiana experienced 1-in-500 year rains that brought severe flooding leading to 30,000 rescues and 13 deaths.

3. Across Australia, extreme weather events are projected to worsen as the climate warms further.

  • Extreme heat is projected to increase across the entire continent, with significant increases in the length, intensity and frequency of heatwaves in many regions.
  • The time spent in drought is projected to increase across Australia, especially in southern Australia. Extreme drought is expected to increase in both frequency and duration.
  • Southern and eastern Australia are projected to experience harsher fire weather.
  • The intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected to increase across most of Australia.
  • The increase in coastal flooding from high sea level events will become more frequent and more severe as sea levels continue to rise.

4. The impacts of extreme weather events will likely become much worse unless global greenhouse gas emissions are reduced rapidly and deeply.

  • Burning of coal, oil and gas is causing temperatures to rise at unprecedented rates and is making extreme weather events more intense, damaging and costly.
  • Major emitters including China and the European Union are leading action on climate change, but Australia is lagging well behind and is on track to even miss its very weak target of a 26-28% reduction in emissions by 2030.
  • Australia is expected to do its fair share to meet the global emissions reduction challenge by cutting its emissions rapidly and deeply.
  • Phasing out ageing, polluting coal plants and replacing them with clean, efficient renewable energy sources such as wind and solar is imperative for stabilising the climate and reducing the risk of even worse extreme weather events.

Source: The Climate Council

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An Indian chemical plant has figured out how to turn its carbon emissions into baking soda

A chemical plant in India is the first in the world to run a new system for capturing carbon emissions and converting them into baking soda.
The Tuticorin Alkali Chemicals plant, in the industrial port city of Tuticorin, is expecting to convert some 60,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually into baking soda and other chemicals – and the scientists behind the process say the technique could be used to ultimately capture and transform up to 10 percent of global emissions from coal.
While carbon capture technology is not a new thing, what’s remarkable about the Tuticorin installation is that it’s running without subsidies from the government – suggesting the researchers have developed a profitable, practical system that could have the commercial potential to expand to other plants and industries.
“I am a businessman. I never thought about saving the planet,” the managing director of the plant, Ramachadran Gopalan, told the BBC.
“I needed a reliable stream of CO2, and this was the best way of getting it.”
The inventors of the new technique, London-based Carbon Clean Solutions, developed the system in the UK after receiving finance from a British entrepreneur support scheme. Their process uses a patented chemical to filter out CO2 molecules.
In the Tuticorin setup, the plant runs a coal-fired burner to make steam that powers its various chemical-manufacturing processes. A mist containing Carbon Clean’s chemical separates the CO2 emissions in the burner’s chimney, which are then fed into a mixing chamber with salt and ammonia.
The end product can then be used to produce baking soda (sodium bicarbonate) or a range of other compounds, for use in things such as glass manufacture, detergents, disinfectants, and sweeteners.
The overall idea of separating CO2 molecules from flue gas may not be new, but the team behind the system say that their filtering chemical is more efficient than the amine compounds that scientists have previously used, and requires less energy to run.
According to CEO Aniruddha Sharma, the company’s approach is to think realistically, partnering with modest, low-risk enterprises as it builds itself up – and he says the same strategy should be implemented by the carbon capture industry as a whole.
“So far the ideas for carbon capture have mostly looked at big projects, and the risk is so high they are very expensive to finance,” Sharma told Roger Harrabin at The Guardian.
“We want to set up small-scale plants that de-risk the technology by making it a completely normal commercial option.”
The other compelling aspect of the system is that it actually does something positive with the carbon – making new chemicals and products – rather than simply storing it somewhere in a useless, dormant state (such as burying it underground).
That distinction is the difference between carbon capture and storage (CCS) and what’s called carbon capture and utilisation (CCU).
And given the expense involved with building carbon capture systems, the ability to on-sell a byproduct could be incredibly important in making this technology financially viable in the bigger picture.
“We have to do everything we can to reduce the harmful effects of burning fossil fuels,” Lord Ronald Oxburgh, the head of the UK government’s carbon capture advisory group, told the BBC, “and it is great news that more ways are being found of turning at least some of the CO2 into useful products.”
Source: http://www.sciencealert.com
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Extreme weather linked to climate change is damaging Britain’s favourite places

Lord’s has become the first cricket ground in the country to run on 100% renewable energy, as new figures reveal the increasing disruption to cricket caused by extreme weather patterns linked to climate change.
New statistics released by Marylebone Cricket Club (MCC), owners of Lord’s, illustrate that extreme weather in December 2015, which has been linked to climate change, caused more than £3.5 million worth of damage across 57 cricket clubs. Increased rainfall is also causing significant loss of fixtures in recreational cricket and impacting on the professional game.
The announcement launches the annual “Show The Love” campaign from The Climate Coalition and accompanies the publication of a “Weather Warning” report analysed by the Priestley International Centre for Climate. The report highlights how extreme weather conditions are affecting some of Britain’s favourite places, from gardens and pubs to cliffs and woodlands and churches to cricket pitches.
Professor Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate, said: “UK weather will always bowl us the odd googly but climate change is making them harder to defend against. The science has now developed to the point where we can say whether the likelihood of a particular bout of weather has been increased by climate change. We know that climate change made the record wet weather in December 2015 considerably more likely. The trend towards more intense rainfall is clear and it’s great to see MCC, ECB and The Climate Coalition raising awareness of these challenges that aren’t just affecting people in other countries but are having impacts right here in the UK.’
Two extreme weather events linked to climate change in the past eight years have caused extensive damage to Wordsworth’s childhood home whilst the iconic chalk cliffs at Birling Gap have seen increased rates of erosion due to heavy rainfall, sea-level rise and an increase in the regularity of storm events. The report also found that Slimbridge Wetlands Centre in Gloucestershire, founded by Sir Peter Scott, has recorded changes in bird species at the centre which have been linked to changes in temperature.
Read The Climate Coalition’s press release: ShowTheLoveLordsLaunchPR
Read the Weather Warning report: Weather warning report

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WRMA to Hold Weather Risk Symposium as Official Supporter of InterMET Asia

Washington, DC (Monday, February 6, 2017) – The Weather Risk Management Association (WRMA) will hold a half-day Weather Risk Management Symposium on March 21, 2017 in conjunction with the 2017 InterMET Asia – Extreme Weather Expo Conference in Singapore.
As an official supporter of the InterMET Extreme Weather Expo Conference, WRMA has compiled an impressive lineup of industry experts to provide attendees a complete treatment of the weather risk industry. The WRMA Weather Risk Management Symposium will begin with an introductory session for those less familiar with the industry, to lend context as to how weather challenges a wide spectrum of businesses whose revenues, costs, and financial performance are sensitive to weather.
“The weather risk management market is positioned at the intersection of the financial engineering and scientific communities,” said Bradley Hoggatt, MSI GuaranteedWeather, WRMA President. “The WRMA symposium is a chance for those in our industry as well as related industries to hear from and engage with weather risk experts.”
The sessions will address key drivers that have shaped the marketplace, predictions regarding future products, and required supporting data and analytics. Speakers will utilize illustrative case study examples to provide perspective and generate discussion as to how new data sources and modelling techniques can facilitate increased hedge effectiveness and uptake of weather risk management products.
Topics and speakers on the agenda for the WRMA Weather Risk Management Symposium include:
•    “Weather Risk Management: The Confluence of Weather/Climate Science and Financial Engineering” – Brad Hoggatt, MSI Guaranteed Weather
•    “Case Study 1: Managing Weather Risk in the Energy Sector” – Richard Betts, Uniper Global Commodities and Ralph Renner, Endurance Re
•    “Case Study 2: Weather Risk Management in the Agriculture Sector Including Applications for Natural Catastrophes” – Sandeep Ramachandran, Axis Specialty Markets Ltd, and Jonathan Barratt, CelsiusPro Australia
•    “Case Study 3: Management of Weather Risks in Other Industry Sectors” – Ralph Renner, Endurance Re,  Claire Wilkinson, Willis Towers Watson, and   Richard Zhang, Willis Towers Watson
•    “Technology: Accessing Weather Risk Protection”– David Whitehead, weatherXchange
Download the WRMA Symposium Programme >>
Registration for the free-to-attend WRMA Symposium can be completed via the InterMET Asia website >> and click ‘Register for the Exhibition’.
For more information on the Symposium visit WRMA’s event page >>
For details about the full InterMET – Extreme Weather Expo conference programme, click here >>
About WRMA
WRMA is the industry association for weather risk management professionals. WRMA strives to enhance public awareness of the weather risk industry and promote the growth and general welfare of the weather risk market. For more information on WRMA activities, programs, and initiatives, please visit us at www.wrma.org

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Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Overview

Hurricane Katrina

(Source: NOAA) The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is the Nation’s Scorekeeper in terms of addressing severe weather and climate events in their historical perspective. As part of its responsibility of monitoring and assessing the climate, NCEI tracks and evaluates climate events in the U.S. and globally that have great economic and societal impacts. NCEI is frequently called upon to provide summaries of global and U.S. temperature and precipitation trends, extremes, and comparisons in their historical perspective. Found here are the weather and climate events that have had the greatest economic impact from 1980 to 2016. The U.S. has sustained 203 weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2016). The total cost of these 203 events exceeds $1.1 trillion.

2016 in Context…

In 2016, there were 15 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included a drought event, 4 flooding events, 8 severe storm events, a tropical cyclone event, and a wildfire event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 138 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted. The 1980–2016 annual average is 5.5 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2012–2016) is 10.6 events (CPI-adjusted).

Icon Map

Three new billion-dollar disaster events were added during the 4th quarter, bringing the 2016 total to 15 events. This represents the 2nd highest total number of events surpassing the 11 events observed in 2012. The record number of events in one year (since 1980) is 16, as observed in 2011.
The U.S. has also experienced 4 billion-dollar inland flood events during 2016, doubling the previous record, as no more than 2 inland flood events have occurred in a year since 1980. This is a notable record, further highlighted by the numerous other record flooding events that have impacted the U.S. in 2016.

Methodology and Data Sources

In 2012, NCEI — then known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) — reviewed its methodology on how it develops Billion-dollar Disasters. NCEI held a workshop with economic experts (May, 2012) and worked with a consulting partner to examine possible inaccuracy and biases in the data sources and methodology used in developing the loss assessments (mid-2013). This ensures more consistency with the numbers NCEI provides on a yearly basis and give more confidence in the year-to-year comparison of information. Another outcome is a published peer-reviewed article “U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: Data Sources, Trends, Accuracy and Biases” (Smith and Katz, 2013). This research found the net effect of all biases appears to be an underestimation of average loss. In particular, it is shown that the factor approach can result in an underestimation of average loss of approximately 10–15%. This bias was corrected during a reanalysis of the loss data to reflect new loss totals.
It is also known that the uncertainty of loss estimates differ by disaster event type reflecting the quality and completeness of the data sources used in our loss estimation. In 2016, six of the fifteen billion-dollar events (i.e., the 4 inland flooding events, drought and Hurricane Matthew) have higher potential uncertainty values around the loss estimates due to less coverage of insured assets. The remaining nine events (i.e., 8 severe storm events and wildfire) have lower potential uncertainty surrounding their estimate due to more complete insurance coverage. Our newest research defines the cost uncertainty using confidence intervals as discussed in the peer-reviewed article “Quantifying Uncertainty and Variable Sensitivity within the U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disaster Cost Estimates” (Smith and Matthews, 2015). This research is a next step to enhance the value and usability of estimated disaster costs given data limitations and inherent complexities.
In performing these disaster cost assessments these statistics were taken from a wide variety of sources and represent, to the best of our ability, the estimated total costs of these events — that is, the costs in terms of dollars that would not have been incurred had the event not taken place. Insured and uninsured losses are included in damage estimates. Sources include the National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture, other U.S. government agencies, individual state emergency management agencies, state and regional climate centers, media reports, and insurance industry estimates.

References

Citing this information:

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/

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Trump’s orders spell winds of change for automakers to renewable energy

It’s been just 11 days since Donald Trump was inaugurated in the US and so far the new president seems set on solidifying the promises he made during his campaign, including some that would impact climate and energy.
The 1,000-mile long wall that Trump intends to build between the US and Mexico would release as much as 1.9m tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere if it were to be built out of concrete, according to an estimate from Columbia University. Trump signed an executive order last Wednesday to direct the construction of such a wall and to boost the number of patrol forces along it.
Meanwhile, another executive order signed over the weekend to halt immigration from seven Middle Eastern countries could have an impact on companies from General Electric to General Motors – both of which employ immigrants from the nations affected. “We have many employees from the named countries and we do business all over the region,” said Jeff Immelt, CEO of GE, in an internal email. GE is one of the world’s leading wind turbine manufacturers and in 2015 almost 14% of its revenue came from the Middle East and Africa, according to Bloomberg data. GM, maker of the all-electric Chevrolet Bolt and Volt plug-in hybrid, has vast manufacturing operations in Michigan – a state with a substantial Muslim population.
Trump is also likely to follow through on his intention to pull the US out of the landmark climate pact signed by more than 190 nations in Paris in December 2015, according to Myron Ebell, who headed Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency transition team. “President Trump made it clear he would withdraw from the deal,” Ebell said during a press conference in London yesterday. As the world’s richest nation and second largest polluter, US participation in the accord is fundamental to limiting global warming, say climate researchers.
One area that might survive Trump’s protectionist stance is the gas export market between the US and Mexico, according to asset manager ING Groep and Pira Energy Group. Pipeline deliveries of natural gas from the US to Mexico have more than doubled in the past two years, in response to declining oil and gas production in the latter and a supply glut in the former. The market supports jobs in the US and provides Mexico with cheap fuel and so may avert any interventionist measures, say the companies.
In California, large battery storage plants are moving in on the traditional role of natural gas to provide electricity to the grid during peak hours of demand. Three large plants – built by Tesla Motors, AES and Altagas – will go live in southern California this week in order to fill the power glut caused by the natural gas leak at Aliso Canyon in Los Angeles, which was subsequently shut down. The leak emitted 109,000 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere and led to the displacement of thousands of local residents. The battery storage projects have all been completed within six months and will alleviate the risk of winter blackouts.
On the US east coast, the country’s largest offshore wind farm received approval last week, a key milestone on the way to its deployment in waters off Long Island. The 90MW project will generate enough electricity to power 50, 000 homes and is the first step towards New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s goal to develop 2.4GW of offshore wind by 2030.
In Europe, the offshore wind industry will install more than 3.5GW of capacity this year, according to a forecast by the WindEurope industry group. Germany and the UK will be market leaders – installing more than 1.6GW each, while Belgium will add 165MW and Denmark 23MW. This will add to the continent’s current capacity of 12.6GW of offshore wind.
The market for offshore wind in Polish waters and elsewhere in the Baltic Sea also looks promising, according to a BNEF Research Note that sees a current unfinanced pipeline of as much as 2.5GW. The Baltic region has so far been behind in developing offshore wind due to a lack of supportive policy, low power prices and a ready supply of hydro-electric and nuclear power. Nevertheless, Poland has an auction on the cards for 2017 and at least 200MW of capacity could be commissioned in the country by 2022, the note says.
Taiwan’s market for offshore wind is also heating up following news last week that Dong Energy and Macquarie Capital had both bought stakes in the country’s first commercial-scale offshore project – the 128MW Formosa I wind farm. Macquarie now owns half the project, Dong Energy holds 35% and the initial developer — Swancor Renewable – holds the remainder. Formosa I is expected to be fully built in 2019, subject to a final investment decision.

India’s solar installations to escalate from 2017 onwards (GW of capacity)
India's solar installations to escalate from 2017 onwards (GW of capacity)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceIndia added 3.85GW of grid-connected solar generation capacity in the first 10 months of 2016 — almost double total installations in 2015. BNEF has revised its projections for subsequent years based on the amount of capacity auctioned in 2016 and anticipated installations in the future. States will be under increasing pressure to meet the renewable purchase obligation targets set out at federal level, which require 6.75% of total electricity consumption across all states to come from solar-powered generation by the end of 2019.
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Climate change poses increasingly severe risks for ecosystems, human health and the economy in Europe

 25 Jan 2017: Europe’s regions are facing rising sea levels and more extreme weather, such as more frequent and more intense heatwaves, flooding, droughts and storms due to climate change, according to a European Environment Agency report published today. The report assesses the latest trends and projections on climate change and its impacts across Europe and finds that better and more flexible adaptation strategies, policies and measures will be crucial to lessen these impacts.

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‘Climate change will continue for many decades to come. The scale of future climate change and its impacts will depend on the effectiveness of implementing our global agreements to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but also ensuring that we have the right adaptation strategies and policies in place to reduce the risks from current and projected climate extremes.’
Hans Bruyninckx, EEA Executive Director

The observed changes in climate are already having wide-ranging impacts on ecosystems, the economy and on human health and well-being in Europe, according to the report ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016’. New records continue to be set on global and European temperatures, sea levels and reduced sea ice in the Arctic. Precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter and dry regions drier. Glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing. At the same time, climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation and droughts, are increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions. Improved climate projections provide further evidence that climate-related extremes will increase in many European regions.
‘Climate change will continue for many decades to come. The scale of future climate change and its impacts will depend on the effectiveness of implementing our global agreements to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but also ensuring that we have the right adaptation strategies and policies in place to reduce the risks from current and projected climate extremes,’ said Hans Bruyninckx, EEA Executive Director.

Climate change hotspots

All European regions are vulnerable to climate change, but some regions will experience more negative impacts than others. Southern and south-eastern Europe is projected to be a climate change hotspot, as it is expected to face the highest number of adverse impacts. This region is already experiencing large increases in heat extremes and decreases in precipitation and river flows, which have heightened the risk of more severe droughts, lower crop yields, biodiversity loss and forest fires. More frequent heat waves and changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive infectious diseases are expected to increase risks to human health and well-being.
Coastal areas and floodplains in western parts of Europe are also seen as hotspots as they face an increased risk of flooding from rising sea levels and a possible increase in storm surges. Climate change is also leading to major changes in marine ecosystems as a result of ocean acidification, warming and the expansion of oxygen-depleted dead zones.
Ecosystems and human activities in the Arctic will also be strongly affected owing to the particularly rapid increase in air and sea temperatures and the associated melting of land and sea ice.
Although some regions may also experience some positive impacts, such as improving conditions for agriculture in parts of northern Europe, most regions and sectors will be negatively affected.

Map ES.1 Key observed and projected climate change and impacts for the main biogeographical regions in Europe

Europe’s regions are facing rising sea levels and more extreme weather, such as more frequent and more intense heatwaves, flooding, droughts and storms due to climate change, according to a European Environment Agency report published today. The report assesses the latest trends and projections on climate change and its impacts across Europe and finds that better and more flexible adaptation strategies, policies and measures will be crucial to lessen these impacts.
Source: EEA, 2017

Ecosystems, human health and economy

Ecosystems and protected areas across Europe are under pressure from climate change and other stressors, such as land use change. The report highlights that the impacts of climate change are a threat to biodiversity at land and in the seas. Many animal and plant species are experiencing changes to their life cycles and are migrating northwards and to higher altitudes, while various invasive species have established themselves or have expanded their range. Marine species, including commercially important fish stocks, are also migrating northwards. These changes affect various ecosystem services and economic sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries.
The main health effects of climate change are linked to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases, and changes in environmental and social conditions. River and coastal flooding has affected millions of people in Europe in the last decade. The health effects include injuries, infections, exposure to chemical hazards and mental health consequences. Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense, leading to tens of thousands of premature deaths in Europe. This trend is projected to increase and to intensify, unless appropriate adaptation measures are taken. The spread of tick species, the Asian tiger mosquito and other disease carriers increases the risk of Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis, West Nile fever, dengue, chikungunya and leishmaniasis.
The economic costs of climate change can be very high. Climate-related extreme events in EEA member countries account for more than EUR 400 billion of economic losses since 1980. Available estimates of the future costs of climate change in Europe consider only some sectors and show considerable uncertainty. Still, the projected damage costs from climate change are highest in the Mediterranean region. Europe is also affected by climate change impacts occurring outside Europe through trade effects, infrastructure, geopolitical and security risks, and migration.

Enhancing adaptation and knowledge

Mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into other policies is progressing but can be further enhanced. Other possible further actions include improving policy coherence across different policy areas and governance levels (EU, transnational, national and subnational), more flexible adaptive management approaches, and the combination of technological solutions, ecosystem-based approaches and ‘soft’ measures.
The development and use of climate and adaptation services are increasing in Europe. Improved knowledge would be useful in various areas, for example, on vulnerability and risk assessments at various scales and on monitoring, reporting and evaluation of adaptation actions, their costs and benefits, and synergies and trade-offs with other policies.

Background

The report is an indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society. It also looks at society’s vulnerability to these impacts and at the development of adaptation policies and the underlying knowledge base.
The report was developed by the EEA in collaboration with the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Europe and three European Topic Centres (ETC-CCA, ETC-BD, ETC-ICM). This is the fourth ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe’ report, which is published every four years. This edition aims to support the implementation and review process of the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy, which is foreseen for 2018, and the development of national and transnational adaptation strategies and plans.